🔮Prediction Markets

Buckle up - this gets wordy❗

The Mars Economy project consists of a set of project specific markets. The most promising projects elected by the Mars Economy decentralized governance, will be allowed to open specific staking on the platform. For each of these projects a separate prediction market will be created.‌

The markets use 3-level grouping:‌

● Level 1 - Sections. Examples are: Crossing the frontier; Discover the red planet; A new home.‌

● Level 2 - Milestones. Examples are: First Orbital Flight of spacecraft fit for Mars logistics; First crew headed to Mars.‌

● Level 3 - Predictions. Examples are: Achieved by XX.XX. 20XX ‌(yes / no)? Private ‌Company or NASA SLS? Which Agency or Nation will be the first ? What is the crew size ?

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All prediction markets operate identically based on the same smart contracts code. The basic attributes of all prediction markets are:

‌● A complete set of possible outcomes

● A settlement date‌

● Time and pool share limits.

‌Decisions about the winning outcomes are taken at the settlement date by a group of oracles or by governance under control of a separate Settlement smart contract.

The projects native tokens ($DMT) play two major roles in the Mars Economy project in the prediction market phase:

‌● Basis for the oracle system. All parties that are allowed by the decentralized governance to act as oracles, must stake 1,000,000 tokens. Tokens should be staked separately on the main prediction market and project specific markets. The staked tokens will be locked in the smart contracts until the date of settlement of a certain prediction market.‌

● Voting token for decentralized governance. Holders of the tokens will be able to submit governance proposals and vote for them, e.g.:‌

○ Add a project specific market

○ Add / remove an oracle‌

○ Change fees

○ Setup a future emission control smart contract

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Creation of a prediction market:‌

A new prediction market is created by governance decision. When the decision is approved, a new instance of the prediction market smart contract is automatically deployed in the Blockchain.

‌Shares of outcome:‌

Every prediction market has shares of outcome tokens that can be either bought directly from the contracts or traded on an external market. Every share corresponds to one of the possible outcomes for a given market. At the date of settlement, the shares for the true outcome will be accepted by the smart contract at the settlement price (see details below), alternative shares will not be accepted and therefore will have no value. The initial shares distribution will be performed by the smart contract. Users will be able to buy the shares for 1 BUSD each. All the collected amount will be locked in the smart contract until the prediction date. When a winning outcome will be settled, the collected amount will be distributed among the winning shareholders proportionally by returning their shares to the smart contract and burning them. To make the minimum winning amount more predictable, the initial shares distribution will have the following limits (defined for each prediction market):

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• Time limit - the initial shares distribution must be finished at some date before the predicted event. This is to prevent buying shares when some outcome becomes obvious earlier than the prediction date.

• Pool share limit - since some predefined date, there may be a limit on the maximum share of one outcome in the pool, e.g. 80%. When this limit is reached, the distribution for this specific outcome will be suspended until a sufficient amount of other shares of outcomes will be purchased.

‌Settlement price of the shares:‌

The settlement price of the winning shares will include the initial amount of BUSD collected minus the amount of fees paid to oracles, minus the protocol fee:‌

P = (total_BUSD_collected - total_fees_paid - protocol_fee) / number_of_shares_won)